Market timing the ETF TLT (U.S. Treasury bond 20+ year maturities): An alternative to profit in a bear market without short-selling

TLT is a widely followed bond ETF. It trades on an average of over 4 million shares per day. Generally this ETF moves up when the market goes down because it is considered a safe haven during market down trends. With some market timing strategies you can time your entries and exits and profit from market meltdowns.

So in times of downward trends there is an alternative strategy. Instead of having a margin account so you can sell short your favourite stock or ETF, and bear all the inherent risks associated with short selling, you can buy long TLT and make a capital gain profit as well as earn monthly dividends until the equity market turns bullish.

Some investors might argue that they can buy inverse ETFs such as QLD. However, these are two to three times leveraged ETFs making them extremely volatile instruments and you can lose significantly if your timing is wrong. Most investors do not have the stomach for the potential losses. Trading and timing TLT during bear markets is a conservative strategy to take advantage of markets going down