Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Feb 29, 2016

Most investors struggle with understanding the fluctuations of the markets and how to trade within them. A typical buy-and-hold investor who has been in the markets over the past 14 months has spent a great deal of emotional energy, and savings. Since January 2015, the SPX has returned -5.48%. Though this is far better than just a few weeks ago …

READ MORE

Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Feb 15, 2016

On Friday we have had a relief rally and a lot of investors with long positions are excited. However, in this period of extremely high volatility the chance for a head fake still remains. That’s why it’s better to validate a real rally than anticipate it. Very high volatility is creating intra-day swings that can take out even some of …

READ MORE

Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Feb 1, 2016

Looks like the bulls are getting some comfort from last week’s finale. Our long-term cycle continue on a decline and we are not sold on this “bull” yet. To us this is a major short coverings squeeze which creates violent rallies because the short seller’s stop prices are getting triggered. Even a little profit taken by short sellers can create …

READ MORE

Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Jan 18, 2016

When the stocks that institutions buy keep getting slammed back and forth without a positive trend, the institutions finally lose interest and start moving money to cash or the treasuries. Big bar swings are not healthy for bull markets. When volatility remains high for an extended period, it discourages investment. Historically, volatility increases when interest rates move too high (5 …

READ MORE

Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Dec 14, 2015

For almost two decades when the junk bond market and the stock market diverged; it was the junk bond market that proved observant. When junk bonds and stocks disagree, Junk bonds tend to be right. Weakness in the High yield bonds with credit ratings below investment grade and fears of meltdown have increased after high-yield mutual fund Third Avenue Focused …

READ MORE

Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Nov 30, 2015

We are still in a choppy sideways mode and we do not expect much action for going long or short. However, based on our cycle’s projection we are expecting to go long sometime in the middle of December for a year-end rally. That is a very high possibility based on our observation of the market, particularly because our mid-term cycles …

READ MORE

Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Nov 23, 2015

Indices began Friday with a strong first hour rally but the shorter term cycle forced a pull-back that surrendered a good portion of those gains. Our short term cycles are still in decline. These cycles should hold the markets back for a few more trading days. However, we may take a long position in SPY and SSO if our short …

READ MORE

Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Sept 28, 2015

This has been a year of frustration for investors with a market full of choppy action over the past nine months. In fact during the past 90 years of Wall Street, there have been only eleven times when cash has actually outperformed the markets. At current money market rates, that’s not saying much. But here’s the interesting part of this …

READ MORE

Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – August 17, 2015

The U.S. stocks are already somewhere between pricey and very expensive, based on various historical measures. Expensive stock markets tend to produce sub-par returns over time, almost regardless of what happens in the economy. Cheap markets, by contrast, tend to produce strong returns. However, Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,000 points from its peak in the spring. It’s never …

READ MORE

Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – August 10, 2015

These days equity market is skating on thin ice. Historically, when the curve of new highs minus new lows on the NYSE is falling, it signifies a drop coming in the markets. Therefore rebounds are likely to be short lived. However, the bull market can climb despite that underlying erosion of new highs and, until Fed rates reach a critical …

READ MORE