Risk Tolerance

Risk Tolerance At ETF Trader Advisor we have come to understand that trading is not about being right or wrong; it is about being in the game with a trading methodology that has been tested to produce a high probability of win ratio. When your ratio of win to loss is high for entering a trade, all you must do …

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Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Dec 14, 2015

For almost two decades when the junk bond market and the stock market diverged; it was the junk bond market that proved observant. When junk bonds and stocks disagree, Junk bonds tend to be right. Weakness in the High yield bonds with credit ratings below investment grade and fears of meltdown have increased after high-yield mutual fund Third Avenue Focused …

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Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Nov 30, 2015

We are still in a choppy sideways mode and we do not expect much action for going long or short. However, based on our cycle’s projection we are expecting to go long sometime in the middle of December for a year-end rally. That is a very high possibility based on our observation of the market, particularly because our mid-term cycles …

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Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Nov 23, 2015

Indices began Friday with a strong first hour rally but the shorter term cycle forced a pull-back that surrendered a good portion of those gains. Our short term cycles are still in decline. These cycles should hold the markets back for a few more trading days. However, we may take a long position in SPY and SSO if our short …

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Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – Sept 28, 2015

This has been a year of frustration for investors with a market full of choppy action over the past nine months. In fact during the past 90 years of Wall Street, there have been only eleven times when cash has actually outperformed the markets. At current money market rates, that’s not saying much. But here’s the interesting part of this …

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Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – August 17, 2015

The U.S. stocks are already somewhere between pricey and very expensive, based on various historical measures. Expensive stock markets tend to produce sub-par returns over time, almost regardless of what happens in the economy. Cheap markets, by contrast, tend to produce strong returns. However, Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,000 points from its peak in the spring. It’s never …

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Editor’s Weekly Market Thoughts – August 10, 2015

These days equity market is skating on thin ice. Historically, when the curve of new highs minus new lows on the NYSE is falling, it signifies a drop coming in the markets. Therefore rebounds are likely to be short lived. However, the bull market can climb despite that underlying erosion of new highs and, until Fed rates reach a critical …

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Editor’s weekly market thoughts – June 29, 2015

At the request of several clients we would like to give a quick refresher explanation of our “Portfolio Systems”. Clients seem to prefer reminders from time to time just to become fully familiar with our strategies and analysis. We will also produce are quarterly portfolio results. You will have the next one after July 15th. US Equity Sector Portfolio system …

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Editor’s weekly market thoughts – June 8/15

The current stock market rally is driven in part by fear. And this behavior makes the current boom a bit different from a “classic bubble. In fact, the current environment may be driven more by fear than by a sense of a new era. We detect a bit of anxiety and insecurity now that is a factor in markets, which …

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Editor’s weekly market thoughts – May 18/15

The transition period between the end of quantitative easing and the first rate hike by the fed, is going to be a bit scary for today’s complacent investor. The VIX is very low and that is a bad omen for the new bulls. The herd investor is so relaxed and passive. However, you would not want to bet on the …

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