The current stock market rally is driven in part by fear. And this behavior makes the current boom a bit different from a “classic bubble.

In fact, the current environment may be driven more by fear than by a sense of a new era. We detect a bit of anxiety and insecurity now that is a factor in markets, which is quite different from other historical market booms. For now, markets remain in volatile chop

If there is one big issue we are most concerned about is not so much the stock-market bubble, it’s the bond market, particularly the insatiable appetite for the high-Yield bonds. Surely the market is not cheap. But rest assured we are ready for any surprises such as exuberant herd investors, geopolitical event, and an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.

Index Trader systems:

Presently in Cash/Money Market

The trading action is unfortunately more of the same kind of market funk that always seems to occur near previous market highs. Getting past it typically requires a good swift knock down before institutional traders are finally ready to step in and become serious longer term buyers again. Until then, intraday swings remain a day trader’s delight.

The Portfolio Systems:

US Equity Sector Portfolio : We exited our short term seasonal trading on 06/03/2015. We are only exploiting the seasonality aspect of the market. We take advantage of this type of short term trade when we are in cash during month ends, should the long term trend is not in bear market. Occasionally we will inform you with some of our methodology without getting into the heart of our proprietary trading systems, which identifies market reversal points in our volume-based “Portfolio systems”.

US Equity Sector Portfolio Signal Page Snapshot

Symbol Sector$1.61 % of Portfolio Entry date Entry price Exit Date Exit Price Dividends $ Gain/Loss this trade
IJK Mid-Cap Growth 34%  05/27/2015  171.66 06/03/2015  172.43 $0.77
MDY Mid-Cap Blend 33%  05/27/2015  278.30  06/03/2015  279.91 $1.61
IJT Small-Cap Growth 33%  05/27/2015  128.73  06/03/2015  131.33 $2.60

US Bond Sector Portfolio: High Yield bonds are still positive. In this system we have 25 bond sectors positive, and high yield still is the strongest sector with the most volume. Reversal to cash will happen if we lose 3 bond sectors, meaning 22 is when we go to cash.

US Bond Sector Portfolio Signal Page Snapshot

Symbol Sector Entry Date Entry Price Latest Closing Dividends to-date $ Gain / Loss % Gain / Loss Action
MSYPX High Yield Bonds 3/20/2015  $10.22  $10.32 $0.05  $0.15 1.5% Stay LONG
STHTX High Yield Bonds 3/20/2015  $6.66  $6.67  $0.03  $0.04  0.6% Stay LONG
MNHYX High Yield Bonds 3/20/2015  $10.12  $10.31  –  $0.19  1.9% Stay LONG

Please contact us for any explanation. We would gladly help you!