When investing in financial markets projecting the recent past into the indefinite future is a recipe for repeatedly losing on your investment.
This obsession, as well as many analysts’ gloomy view of the stock market, will ensure the sustainability of a 2012 summer and fall rally. The current disparity between safe-haven assets and risk assets is extremely compelling, and for that reason the bulls will win this short term battle.
These days any high yield instrument, defensive stock and US treasuries with dividends, will not participate in this short term rally. Too many investors are piled up in them as advised by financial advisors and wealth managers. That has been their strategy since the last big slump of the equities. It is certain that they will not get into risk assets and commodities until they have confirmation of new uptrends, which means they already have and will miss the buying opportunities at favorable prices. Most professionals do not have the mental discipline to buy at depressed prices. It is not easy to go against the crowd. However that is exactly what you have to do.
We are now experiencing a greater number of higher lows for our equity ETFs, and that is a very positive sign for us. Accept the market volatility and try to ignore the flock trader’s panic and media’s gloom and doom stories. It’s just part of the business.