In our opinion, not yet!

It is very important to figure out what the amateurs and fund managers are doing, in order to determine the equity market stages. Presently, the majority of money managers are expecting a bear market and there is no shortage of short-sellers. They feel that higher gains from these levels are highly unlikely. This behavior is not typical of investors during equity market tops. Usually during market peaks the media, as well as all investors, unanimously feel bullish.

Bear markets usually start with a whisper rather than a bang, and not when everybody expects it to happen. The financial markets do not reward the majority but rather a small group of very savvy traders who do not follow the herd (institutions, wealth managers and chart slaves).

The current frequent ups and downs just discourage those investors and money managers who are worried about making a half decent return for their clients, or just don’t want to lose anymore. It will lead investors to sell their positions in risk asset just as their chance to make substantial gains is ever increasing. They just cannot take the emotional and psychological toll.

Even though further decline in this market is still possible, it is important not to panic. No one can predict the future, but whatever scenario benefits the least number of investors is the likely outcome. The upcoming few weeks will be interesting.